"Heads I Win, Tails You Lose"
Conspiracy theorists hate questioning their baseline assumptions
"Coin Toss (3635981474)" by ICMA Photos is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
Arguing with convinced conspiracy theorists can be a frustrating experience. For true believers in scripted current affairs, the conspiracy mindset can act like a loaded coin toss. “Heads I win, tails you lose.”
Imagine that you are trying to convince a Flat Earther that he (or she) is wrong. If you mention anything that supports his (or her) views, for example, by emphasising the importance of intuition, it will be given a free pass and just waved through with no critical scrutiny whatsoever. Psychologists call this motivated reasoning.
On the other hand, if you present any evidence that goes against the true believer’s worldview, it will generate massive cognitive dissonance - an uncomfortable feeling we all get when we are faced by contradiction. Some people (particularly those who are drawn to conspiracy speculation) hate cognitive dissonance more than others (particularly those who do research for a living). The best way to make cognitive dissonance go away is by doubling down on the initial position while attacking the new evidence.
“The Earth is flat.”
“Photos from space clearly show that this is wrong.”
“All photos from space are fake.”
Of course, people who believe lots of conspiracy theories will never provide any evidence for any new conspiracy theories they deploy as bodyguards to protect a failing worldview from contact with the world outside their heads. Conspiracy theorists strive to never question their assumptions.
If you start probing the new conspiracy theory that photos from space are fake, you will only generate more cognitive dissonance and more protective conspiracy theories. The conversation can only end badly.
“Every single photo from space is fake?”
“Yes.”
“But what about satellites?”
“Satellites are fake too.”
I feel so strongly that arguing on the internet is a waste of time that I wrote a whole book about it. There is a better way. Instead of talking about our conclusions, we can have much more fruitful conversations if we switch the conversation to our methodology instead, as well as the basic attitudes needed to do research well.
Please tell your conspiratorial friends about scepticism and Bayesian statistics. Tell them about foxes and hedgehogs; and intentionality bias; and friction; and the peaceful transition of power. Take some time to explain open source intelligence (OSINT) and maybe game out some examples together.
You should never expect your conspiratorial friends to admit defeat in the middle of a conversation. All you can do is plant seeds. If you see results later, please avoid being smug or saying: “I told you so.”
Lee McIntyre is a philosopher who has grappled with similar issues. He makes the insightful point that we need to listen to conspiracy theorists and science deniers with respect, even if they are wildly wrong. It is a great observation and one that I need to get much better at keeping in mind. Please make sure you control your anger during these discussions and keep an eye on your own cognitive dissonance - and, yes, you are experiencing cognitive dissonance too.
Cognitive dissonance can be much worse when someone feels that his or her identity is under attack. It is always a good idea to frame the other person’s identity as generously as possible. Saying “I think it’s great that you want to understand the forces that drive current affairs” will give better results than muttering darkly about tinfoil hats.
The Sharpen Your Axe project is designed to help you bring your conspiratorial friends into the light. Why not share some of these essays with people who need to see them? Welcome the follow-up discussion and resist the urge to slam the person for weird follow-up comments. Just plant a seed with generosity and an open heart. There is no great rush. When the time comes, plant another seed. The comments are open. See you next week!
Further Reading
How to Talk to a Science Denier: Conversations with Flat Earthers, Climate Deniers, and Others Who Defy Reason by Lee McIntyre
Sharpen Your Axe is a project to develop a community who want to think critically about the media, conspiracy theories and current affairs without getting conned by gurus selling fringe views. Please subscribe to get this content in your inbox every week. Shares on social media are appreciated!
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Opinions expressed on Substack and Substack Notes, as well as on Bluesky, Mastodon, Post and X (formerly Twitter), are those of Rupert Cocke as an individual and do not reflect the opinions or views of the organization where he works or its subsidiaries.