"Know the Enemy, Know Yourself"

We can apply an ancient formula in Ukraine and Gaza

A copy of The Art of War written on bamboo, by vlasta2, bluefootedbooby on flickr.com - https://www.flickr.com/photos/bluefootedbooby/370458424/, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1616406

The Art of War is an ancient Chinese text on military strategy, which is still read today. It was probably written some 2,500 years ago in the 5th century BCE, during the late Spring and Autumn Period. It was traditionally ascribed to Sun Tzu, a semi-legendary general from the 6th century BCE.

Some Chinese scholars doubt that Sun Tzu ever existed - his name is missing from texts that have survived from the time he was meant to be alive. Whether or not he wrote the book, the text attached to the name still contains wisdom that resonates thousands of years later in a very different world.

One of the most famous passages in The Art of War quotes a saying that was probably already ancient when the text was compiled: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

The world has been rocked by two new wars in the last two years: the brutal invasion of Ukraine by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and Hamas’ savage attack on Israel, which provoked a ferocious counter-attack on Gaza. Did the instigators of both wars know the enemy and their own side?

Ukraine

Putin laid the groundwork for the invasion of Ukraine with a strange essay in July 2021 arguing that Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians are one people. When the invasion came in February 2022, he urged the country’s soldiers to “lay down your weapons immediately and go home.” Of course, this didn’t happen; and the Ukrainian armed forces fought back heroically. Putin appears not to have known his enemy.

Russian propaganda regularly stresses the alleged effeminacy of the west. Putin has claimed that the country’s lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) community is being used as a western attack on the country’s traditional values. He had also long used his propaganda channels to promote extremist voices in the west, many of whom wanted to erode the institutions of liberal democracy. He had also nibbled away at western red lines in battlefields from Georgia to Syria.

Putin must have thought he could get away with an unprovoked invasion of a neighbour. And yet the west has provided vigorous military support for Ukraine, with total aid of $230bn so far, as well as turning off his propaganda channels. He appears to have underestimated the resolve of his enemies in the west in a genuine crisis.

As we mentioned in a previous essay on Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz, the Russian battle for control of Kyiv between February and April 2022 failed due to stretched supply lines and undisciplined troops. Of course, it is difficult for dictators to receive good information after doing away with the feedback loops of competitive elections and a free press. Groupthink will always be a risk. Putin appears not to have understood the weakness of his own side.

According to the formula in The Art of War, Putin should lose in Ukraine. With entrenched lines and wobbly support in the west, particularly among Republicans in the US, I think that outcome looks implausible. A long, drawn-out war ending in a stalemate looks much more likely, although there is always a chance that Putin’s regime will sudden fall in Russia due to internal dissent. Of course, there is also a chance that western support for Ukraine will collapse before Putin’s regime. In this scenario, the question would be which country Russia would attack next.

Israel/Palestine

Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip in 2005. In 2007, Hamas - a terrorist organisation committed to the destruction of Israel - took over as the de-facto authority in Gaza. Some 20,000 rockets have been fired out of Gaza by Hamas and other Islamist organisations since 2001, with the bulk of them coming after 2005. Since the withdrawal, Israel has responded to the constant attacks with two military operations in 2006 and others in 2008, 2009, 2012, 2014 and 2022.

When Hamas plotted the atrocities of 7 October 2023, it was betting on an Israeli over-reaction. It bet correctly. After Hamas slaughtered more than 1,000 people in one day and taking hundreds of hostages, Israel has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians in air raids and ground attacks, many of them women and children. Sovereign states obviously have the right to defend themselves against genocidal terrorists, but Hamas knew full well that Bibi Netanyahu, Israel’s nationalist Prime Minister (PM), would be likely to over-reach in his response.

Hamas is deeply embedded in Gaza and regularly uses the civilian population as a human shield. A British doctor who worked at Shifa Hospital said that there were parts of the institution that he couldn’t go without being shot. Even so, Israel’s decision to hunt out Hamas fighters at the hospital (and in another one in the West Bank) remains controversial.

Israel’s counter-attack has been so heavy-handed that it has landed its government in the Hague defending itself against charges of genocide as the territory teeters on the brink of famine. Some 85% of Gaza’s population has been displaced in the fighting. Hamas bet on Netanyahu taking unpopular decisions, including searching for its fighters in hospitals, because it knows its enemy well.

Meanwhile, Hamas knows well that western supporters of the Palestinian cause ignored its rocket attacks, but deplored Israeli counter-attacks during nearly two decades. It bet something similar would happen in October 2023 and it was largely right. Meanwhile, Palestinian support for Hamas is rising due to the huge death toll due to the Israeli counter-offensive. Muslims around the world also support the Palestinian cause Hamas certainly knows its own side.

The formula in The Art of War suggests that Hamas has an edge in the current war. Even if Israel kills Hamas fighters, its merciless and maladroit response will radicalise other Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank and could turn western populations against the country, even if it still maintains governmental support.

It seems fairly obvious to many that Hamas wanted to provoke an over-reaction with its atrocities in October 2023. Why do exactly what your enemy wants you to do? What should Israel do differently? I don’t have any simple answers to the tragedies of the Middle East, but Israeli PM Netanyahu seems to have made a mistake when it comes to his basic strategic positioning in Gaza.

Although the ancient saying attributed to Sun Tzu is very prescient, we should be wary of using at as our only model. The Middle East is a vast and complex area. Gaza’s population of a little more than half a million is less than 0.2% of the population of the Middle East. It should be seen as a a small part in a much broader picture, with Saudi Arabia and Iran jostling for position in what many describe as a new cold war, based on proxy wars instead of direct confrontation.

Zooming out to understand the wider strategic context, peace in Gaza appears possible in the not-too-distant future, despite the horrors on the ground. The contours of a deal are obvious; and stakeholders are making moves behind the scenes. A US-brokered deal that trades Saudi Arabian recognition of Israel for a plan to rebuild Gaza under moderate leadership with some guarantees about Palestinian sovereignty is the proposal to watch in the weeks and months ahead.

As a Sunni Muslim organisation, Hamas falls within Saudi Arabia’s sphere of influence, even though Shia Iran has also developed a relationship with it. Being non-aligned and playing two superpowers off against each other is a classic cold-war strategy. For example, India’s government followed this course for decades during the previous Cold War, when it sat between the capitalist west and the Soviet bloc.

In this wider regional context, Hamas has a serious problem. Saudi Arabia’s leaders want to promote regional stability and see its belligerence as a problem. If a peace deal comes close to fruition, it will be because although Hamas understood its own side and its sworn enemies, the group failed to factor in the views of other stakeholders in the conflict. Saudi support for moderate Palestinian leadership is could well become a significant strategic problem for the leaders of Hamas, particularly as Israel encroaches further into Gaza.

Netanyahu had said that Israel was “on the cusp” of a recognition deal with Saudi Arabia just before Hamas’ atrocities. While the humanitarian aspects of his counter-assault on Gaza are dubious, to put it politely, his understanding of the kingdom’s strategic positioning is on much more solid ground. How can Israel promote moderate leadership in Gaza without uprooting Hamas?

Ideas matter

Finally, it is worth reiterating two of the common themes of this blog: ideas matter and nationalism is a war-like ideology. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was driven in part by his imperialistic ideology, as well as his his quest to secure a warm-weather port in Crimea. Meanwhile, Hamas’s atrocities were driven by a nationalistic denial of Israeli sovereignty over a relatively tiny strip of land in the Middle East. Netanyahu’s nationalism led him to react the way he did, while his ultra-nationalist coalition allies push for territorial conquests to get borders that can be defended.

It is worth mentioning that any nationalists (of whatever stripe) who have read this far will probably be yelling that I too am a nationalist. I dealt with this rather silly criticism in a previous essay. Let me repeat a rather basic point: dividing people like insects is a bad way of viewing reality. Humanity is united at a very basic level, but at the same time any attempt to divide us into smaller groups will run up into too much diversity to make a simple cut.

The institutions of liberal democracy, a market economy and a welfare state are designed to preserve as much pluralism as possible. This is a worthwhile goal, despite nationalists’ hatred of the open society and desire to destroy it.

Much of the knee-jerk anti-Israeli commentary on the internet has an antisemitic tone. The comments are closed, as usual when we discuss controversial issues that extremists are likely to misinterpret. See you next week!

Further Reading

The Art of War by Sun Tzu (translated by Lionel Giles)

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