Spain Transformed
An essay on how immigration is changing Spain; marriages between Spaniards and foreigners; the bureaucratic hurdles for graduates from Latin America; and the million+ votes from immigrants
"Graduation" by Mark Ramsay is licensed under CC BY 2.0.
When I first moved to Madrid in 1991, it still felt like a very Spanish city. Less than 1% of the population of Spain were immigrants, according to that year’s census. In reality, there might have been a few more of us, but even so foreigners tended to be few and far between. It would have been unthinkable to try and order a coffee in English in most bars or restaurants, which made it a great time and place to learn Spanish.
Let’s fast-forward to the present day. More than 19% of the Spanish population are now immigrants. I live in the outskirts of Barcelona, but travel regularly to Madrid too. The service industry in both cities has become very international, and multi-lingual servers are now the default in city centres, as are thick Buenos Aires accents. Foreign voices and faces have gone from being a rarity to being an everyday sight.
The massive increase in immigration to Spain over 34 years, little more than a generation, has changed the country in multiple ways. For example, many members of the Chinese community (around 0.5% of the population) have discovered that the regulars in neighbourhood tapas bars are incredibly price sensitive. If one family can run a bar together and live on the profits, they can undercut rivals, who have to pay minimum wages to the staff. Chinese-born entrepreneurs have been able to save many bars catering to working-class clients that were on the brink of disappearing.
It is interesting to note that Italians are officially the fourth-largest group of immigrants (0.7%), after Moroccans (1.9%), Romanians (1.3%) and Colombians (1.2%). However, although you will hear some Italian on the streets, it is much less than you might expect from the data. The reality, which the statisticians find it hard to capture, is that many Argentinians (officially 0.3%) over-stay their tourist visas and then apply for Italian passports - more than 60% of the population of Argentina have some Italian ancestry. The people who do this tend to keep their heads down until their new passport comes through and then get counted in the data as Europeans.
Moroccans - the largest single nationality among the new immigrants - are a visible presence in the inner cities and satellite towns, but also in the countryside in Madrid province, along the Mediterranean coast in the east of the country and in the Canary and Balearic Islands. The reason is simple: around 30% of agricultural workers in Spain are foreigners. Morocco is the largest source of foreign workers in the sector, which accounts for 2.6% of the economy - much more than in other countries in Western Europe. Morocco is followed as a source of farm workers by Romania, Senegal and Ecuador. Many do back-breaking work, for example, picking fruit all day, that the native-born population is often reluctant to do.
British readers will be wondering about immigration from the United Kingdom (UK). We rank sixth (0.6%), coming in after Venezuela (0.7%), but before China (0.5%, as mentioned before). The numbers are down by almost a third from the peak of 2012 for obvious reasons: Brexit made it much harder for young university graduates to hop on a plane and teach English for a few years, as I did in the early 1990s.
Even so, Brits remain a major presence around Alicante province in the Valencia region, particularly in Benidorm, where around one person in 20 is British, including many working-class pensioners. This is followed by Málaga in Andalucía, a province that includes Marbella and Fuengirola as well as the city of Málaga itself. Other coastal areas around the Mediterranean, including Almería, the Balearic Islands, Barcelona and its outskirts and Murcia bring up the rear, followed by the Canary Islands in the Atlantic.
People outside Spain might be surprised to hear that jokes about balconies are very common for British residents and other guiris (a semi-affectionate term for tourists and immigrants from the UK, Western Europe and North America, who are stereotyped as being blissfully unaware of what is going on around them and uninterested in learning Spanish). In 2010, there were six deaths and 11 injuries involving young drunk foreign men jumping or falling off hotel balconies, particularly in the Balearic Islands. It became a meme, with local wags inventing the fictional sport of balconing. British people have a particularly bad record, along with Germans.
Backlash?
Immigration has changed Spanish society so quickly that it is quite odd that there has been so little backlash, despite a few jokes about balconies now and then. Part of the reason why can be found in a book by Hanna Rosin on the emergence of women as a powerful force in the workplace, which she first published in 2012 and I read in 2013. I was surprised to see a sharp analysis of Spanish society in the middle of the book.
Rosin says that around 20% of all marriages in Spain involve locals and foreigners (my wife and I are an example of this trend). The book goes on to say this:
Historically, women have tended to marry men with more education or status than they have. But as women get more credentialed, that trend is halting virtually all over the world, and in some countries has even started to reverse itself…
In Spain, some men have found a way to end-run this unsettling new phenomenon for the moment. Instead of marrying a successful Spanish woman, they find a wife among the new wave of Latin American or Eastern European immigrants. “When a man here marries a woman from Colombia he is marrying the kind of woman he would have married fifty years ago in Spain,” says [demographer Albert] Esteve. The ambitious Spanish women, meanwhile, find a husband among the German or Swedish men coming to Spain. “I suppose the women are marrying the kind of man they will find fifty years from now in Spain. The Spanish men,” he adds, “are looking for a women from the past, while the women are looking for men in the future.”
Funnily enough, the most famous example of a Spanish man without a university degree marrying a woman from Romania is Carles Puigdemont, the leader of a failed coup attempt in Catalonia. And, yes, I realise that if he ever saw a translation of this article, he would hate the description of himself as a Spanish man almost as much as he would hate me describing his coup d’etat in those terms, no matter what it says on his passport or in the dictionary!
Of course, it is probably impossible to grow immigration from less than one in a hundred to almost one in five in just over 30 years without any backlash at all, no matter how many people enter marriages with foreigners. Hard-right party Vox is leading the way with a hostile stance to Moroccans and Muslims, particularly teenage immigrants from North Africa who arrive without documentation or family support. The kids are known as MENAs in Spanish. Vox’s campaigning against teenagers from troubled backgrounds has been frankly racist, disgusting many (including me). In the interest of telling the whole story, though, it is worth mentioning also that one of the party’s spokespeople is a deeply Catholic Afro-Spanish man with dark skin.
Unfortunately, Spanish society has often defined itself in opposition to its neighbours across the Strait of Gibraltar. The fact that Muslims are meant to avoid alcohol is probably one factor behind the frosty welcome given to Moroccans by many Spaniards given the importance of bars and restaurants to the culture here. There is also much misinformation and disinformation about Moroccans on social media in Spanish, underpinned by gross generalisations about millions of people. The bigots spread the improbable idea that street criminals from North Africa should be seen as true representatives of their culture rather than the hard-working majority. Myths that Moroccans get ushered to the front of the queue to receive government handouts are also extremely widespread.
Meanwhile, the Catalan-independence movement also has anti-immigration undercurrents, although it tries hard to pretend to be progressive and modern to gullible foreigners. Just as it has become easier to order to buy a cup of coffee in English over my time in Spain, it has also become harder to do so in Catalan in Barcelona and its outskirts. Many people in the service industry in Barcelona tend to come from Latin America and not all of them attain a high level in the region’s minority language before starting work.
This frustration provided fuel for the independence movement in its pomp. Former First Minister, Quim Torra, a fierce separatist, made the link explicitly in an article before becoming an elected official when he compared Catalan “nation” to a sugar-cube and us nasty immigrants to a glass of milk. Native speakers of Catalan, who form the heart of the movement, have also often proved resentful of the millions of Spanish speakers who moved from the countryside to major industrial cities, including Barcelona, between the 1950s and the 1980s.
Perhaps strangely, Catalan-nationalist governments have often encouraged immigration from Morocco and North Africa to the region instead of from Latin America. The thinking behind this bet is that newly arrived Moroccans would be more likely to learn Catalan (and maybe become supporters of independence), while people from Argentina, Bolivia or Colombia might not bother with the minority language (or see the appeal of the secessionist movement). There might be the odd exception, particularly in remote rural areas, but pretty much all Catalan speakers can also communicate in Spanish, which is why Latin Americans and other Spanish speakers are often slow to learn Catalonia’s minority language.
Back here in the real world, there might have been a few token cases of North African supporters of independence, but faces from Morocco were largely notable by their absence in pro-independence demonstrations and riots. The movement has been overwhelmingly backed by white middle-class Catalan speakers, many of them middle-aged or elderly. Nostalgia about the 1950s and early 1960s, when nearly everyone in the region routinely spoke Catalan, has been a defining feature of the movement.
There is a clear contrast between the Catalan secessionists and Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the centre-right leader of the Madrid region. The politician, from the Popular Party (PP), often mentions how it is possible for people from elsewhere to move to the capital and become madrileños in their own way. This has led to talk of Madrid becoming the European version of Miami.
Ayuso’s welcoming approach to immigrants from Latin America and elsewhere often seems to short-circuit the brains of her many left-wing critics, who seem to find it hard to recognise the illiberalism of their own nationalist allies in Catalonia or the Basque Country. It is also worth mentioning that Ayuso fought hard to keep Madrid’s bars and restaurants open during the pandemic while the national government, a Socialist-led coalition, were experimenting with ultra-tough lockdowns.
Since the pandemic, Barcelona, Madrid and Lisbon (in neighbouring Portugal) have become major centres for digital nomads. There are stirrings of a backlash, particularly in Barcelona. If you spend any time in the city, I recommend stopping and reading the graffiti. You might be surprised how much of it expresses hostility to “ex-pats.” A lot of it seems to have been written by people who obviously consider themselves to be left-wing or progressive, which seems a little strange to me.
Racism, nativism and xenophobia can never be progressive, in my humble opinion. A digital-marketing guy from the Netherlands working quietly on a laptop in a local café is not oppressing the locals in any meaningful way, shape or form. If any readers are worried about rising rents, please lobby your leaders to build more houses!
Given such a huge influx of foreigners into Spanish society, I suspect that the creation of a thriving immigrant middle class will be the second-biggest story of the 21st century, after the energy transition (Spain is a leader in renewable energy). Around 60% of the population already count as middle class, which is defined as having household income of 75% to 200% of the average (link in Spanish). The average was just under €19,000, gross, in 2022, making the range of middle-class household incomes from just over €14,000 to just under €38,000.
However, the minimum wage is just under €16,000 (or €1,134 per month net, with extra monthly payments in summer and Christmas). The definition of middle class in the previous paragraph means that one person supporting a family on a single low-paying job counts as middle class. Of course, this is extremely hard to do in cities like Madrid and Barcelona, where the average rent for a modest flat, with 80 square metres, would be €1,656 and €1,592 per month, respectively.
People who are struggling to bring up a family in a tiny flat while running out of money long before payday every month might count as middle class, officially at least, but nobody would use the word “thriving” to describe their daily struggles. Also, if two parents and a grown-up kid all receive subsidies of €400 per month, it might be enough to keep the wolf from the door in a rural area with low rents, but it is doubtful whether anyone could realistically describe this as a middle-class lifestyle.
A more sensible way of looking at it is by education level. Around 41% of the population between 25 and 64 have finished higher studies. This ranges from 37% for men to 45% for women. However, the numbers are much lower among immigrants, falling to just over 30%. Average salaries improve a lot depending on education levels, with graduates earning more than €25,000 on average, compared to just over €16,000 for people who finished school at 16. Those with post-graduate degrees tend to earn nearly €30,000. The actual numbers for graduates who find work are better than the headline figures might suggest given that 7.4% of graduates are unemployed, compared to a European average of 3.8%.
One major stumbling block to the Spanish dream for foreign-born graduates that flies under the radar for many observers is “la homologación de títulos.” The dictionary tells me that the translation should be “homologation,” but this a word that I have never seen in English. It refers to Spain’s bureaucratic approach to validating qualifications from outside the European Union (EU). If you talk to Latin American immigrants who want to gain a foothold in Spain’s professional middle class, many will tell you how frustrating the system can be.
Spain receives around 5,000 requests a month for the homologation of qualifications. Around 84%, or 4,200, come from Latin America, with 65% of the total coming from women (as readers of Rosin would expect). The government simplified the standard last year (link in Spanish), but the system is still broken. One non-government organisation (NGO) says there is a backlog of 100,000 applications; and many take a year and a half, instead of six months, as the law says they should (link in Spanish).
Coming at the issue with a liberal bias, the situation looks completely bonkers. Why do we need well-qualified women from Colombia to work as waitresses while they spend their hard-earned cash and use up some of their precious free time jumping through bureaucratic hoops? Wouldn’t it be better for them, their families and society as a whole to let them start creating as much value for others as soon as possible? Shouldn’t we encourage some percentage of these people to start businesses so that they can eventually employ other people? Let’s celebrate the Spanish dream instead of making it harder!
If we really do need a homologation system (and I have my doubts), can’t it be simplified even further? What would be wrong with a free one-week intensive course for non-EU graduates on the Spanish Constitution and any other fundamental issues that they need to know about? Aspiring professionals in some careers where sloppy work can kill people (surgeons, architects and engineers, for example) might need more courses, of course, but shouldn’t this be the exception rather than the norm? I’ve said that deregulation can sometimes have a nihilistic edge to it, but I sincerely doubt that a lighter touch on educational qualifications is one of those cases.
Newly minted Spaniards
Many immigrants apply for Spanish nationality once they are settled. Nearly a quarter of a million people were granted passports in 2023 alone, with immigrants from Morocco (22%), Venezuela (13%) and Colombia (8%) leading the way. Hundreds of Brits have been getting Spanish passports a year after Brexit, compared with dozens a year beforehand.
More than 1m votes in the 2023 election went to new Spaniards (close to 3% of the census). Around 5% of the vote of both the Socialists and the PP came from immigrants. In general, the Socialists’ defence of the welfare state resonates with new voters from Morocco and Colombia; while the PP’s more aspirational narratives appeal to people from Venezuela, who are fleeing left-wing mismanagement of the economy at home. The Argentine vote is split between both parties. As members of the European Union (EU), Romanians and holders of Italian passports (wherever they are from) can only vote in local and European elections.
I strongly believe that these new Spaniards (and the ones working their way through the bureaucracy) should be near the top of the agenda for any politicians serious about winning elections. Ayuso is leading the way with her pro-diversity rhetoric, although she has been much too slow to promote immigrants to prominent roles.
By contrast, the various populist-left parties have been good at promoting immigrants to frontline positions. Even Vox has promoted the son of an immigrant to a spokesperson role, as mentioned earlier, although this is probably best seen as tokenism to provide cover for the party’s bigotry. The Catalan-nationalist dreams about Moroccans becoming Catalan-speaking separatists can probably be filed under “wishful thinking,” along with many other of the movement’s rather hopeful back-of-an-envelope calculations.
I see plenty of upside for mainstream politicians interested in winning elections. It seems to me that the magic will happen when a party from the centre left or the centre right is able to craft a narrative that defends subsidies for new arrivals while also defending the more aspirational side of the Spanish dream. A deep reform of the homologation system combined with narratives about how the state education system can generate first-generation professionals should be part of the mix, as should slashing red tape for new businesses and the self-employed. Outreach to different communities should be done consistently over years and decades in order to build a stronger position for future elections.
Of course, it will be hard for the Socialists to win Venezuelan votes while former Prime Minister (PM) José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero insists on providing cover for the country’s dictatorship by refusing to criticise it for stealing elections or for crashing the economy. At the same time, it will be hard for the PP to win Moroccan votes given the likelihood that the party would cut a deal with Vox in a heartbeat if the next general election yielded a hung parliament.
If current Socialist PM Pedro Sánchez really can last to 2027, as discussed just last week on this very blog, the opposition PP has plenty of time to develop a sensible strategy based on courting immigrants with aspirations of social mobility. The PP won the last election with 8.2m votes in 2023, but was unable to form a majority afterwards. The last time it won a full majority, in 2011, it did so with 10.9m votes. The difference between the two results is just over 2.7m votes. Support for the PP is up a little in the opinion polls, but not enough to give it a majority.
With nearly quarter of a million immigrants gaining the vote every year, the number of new Spaniards with votes could be closer to 2m than 1m next time around. In my opinion, the PP should start actively courting Moroccan, Colombian, Argentinian and Chinese community leaders next week. Why wait any longer? Just start! Deregulating the homologation of qualifications, building more homes to bring down rents and cutting red tape on new businesses are all policies that could appeal to newcomers without alienating native-born centre-right voters.
In my personal experience, working-class men in Spain (wherever they were born) often complain that the opportunities here are too focussed on “soft” jobs in the service industry. So, the PP should tell these voters about the opportunities that would come if the next government undertook a massive expansion in defence spending. This could generate reams of new manufacturing jobs as well as creating opportunities in the armed forces. The opposition should also talk about how building many more homes would bring back construction jobs while driving down rents.
On the other hand, if Sánchez were serious about winning elections rather than just building improbable and wobbly coalitions, he should consider cutting Zapatero loose and actively seeking out Venezuelan votes ahead of the next election. Sadly, this will never happen. The job of rebuilding Spain’s Socialist party will fall on whoever finds a way of replacing Sánchez as leader once the party is in the opposition, I suspect.
Finally, alert readers will notice that I have mentioned the service industries throughout this essay, from newcomers honing their language skills in bars to Colombian graduates working as waitresses while they wait to get their degrees validated. While I enjoy a cold beer or two and some patatas bravas as much as the next man, the underlying theme to this essay is not due to any personal bias.
The combination of regular sunshine and small flats means that people in Spain socialise outside the home on a very regular basis, particularly when compared to colder European countries to the north. As a result, the hospitality industry is at the heart of Spain’s economy, as well as its culture. Some 1.7m people work in hospitality in Spain, accounting for around 8% of the country’s jobs, with two thirds of these in restaurants and bars.
It is worth mentioning that one short street in central Madrid (c/Cava Baja) had more than 50 places to eat out in just 320 metres in 2019, while a long street in the same city (c/Alcalá) had around 200 places to eat or drink over 11 kilometers. It is difficult to find examples of such a thriving hospitality industry elsewhere in Europe.
The comments are closed, as usual when I take a reality-based line on Catalan independence. But, if any cybernats are wondering, yes, Torra really did compare immigration to a glass of milk. Here is his dark and regressive article from an archive link (in Catalan).
If you subscribe to this blog, non-nationalists should know that you can hit reply to the email. I might not get to it immediately, but I will reply when I get a chance. Please note that I am running around next weekend, so the next essay will come on Friday at 18h CET. I realise this is Valentine’s Day, but what could be more romantic than thinking critically about the news and current affairs? See you next week!
Previously on Sharpen Your Axe
A previous essay on how immigration is changing Spain
On generalising (part one and part two)
The anti-migrant tendencies in Catalan-separatist discourse (part one, part two and part three)
The move from the countryside to the cities
Can Sánchez stay in power to 2027?
Massive expansion in defence spending
Further Reading
The End of Men: And the Rise of Women by Hanna Rosin
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