Trump and Peanuts
Jimmy Carter's decision to put his peanut farm in a blind trust should be discussed much more regularly during Donald Trump's second term
"Maní tostado / Roasted peanut." by Andres Bertens is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.
Progressives around the world are trying to find attack lines that work on incoming US President Donald Trump. The matter is particularly urgent for Democrats in the US, who will fight in the mid-terms in a couple of years.
Part of Trump’s success is due to the fact that the mercurial populist is utterly compelling, whatever you think of his views. The 45th and 47th President is never boring or predictable. Many of us have to take a deep breath before reading the headlines in the morning. What curveball is coming next?
The answer to the question about how to respond isn’t obvious by any means. Democrats howled at the moon about Trump’s 2021 coup attempt during last year’s Presidential election, but he won anyway.
One theme of Sharpen Your Axe is what I have called the two games of politics. Populists can gain an edge in elections with emotionally appealing narratives, but they tend to be worse at governing, which can make re-election difficult, unless they engage in serious democratic backsliding to change the rules of the game. The implication is that the conditions for beating Trump will tend to improve. What should be done in the meantime?
Since we don’t know what the answer to the question will look like, progressives should adopt a deliberately experimental approach. Try lots of things! See what gains traction, what sticks and what backfires. Keep experimenting on different iterations of successful attack lines.
In that spirit, one experiment I would personally love to see involves peanut farms. Jimmy Carter, the 39th President, died in December 2024 just after Trump beat Democratic candidate Kamala Harris but before he was inaugurated. The one-term Democratic leader is best known for his record on civil rights and humanitarianism.
However, contemporary Democrats should return time and time again to one of Carter’s decisions in late 1976. As he was preparing his inauguration, he put his Georgia peanut farm into the hands of a blind trust to avoid any potential conflicts of interest. He was worried that a foreign government or lobbying organisation might try and influence his decisions by buying an unreasonable quantity of peanuts at an inflated price. A blind trust - which transferred management of the farm to trustees while maintaining ownership - removed any risk of that happening or being perceived to happen.
The contrast with Trump could not be clearer. The new president, who has spent much of his career looking for grifts, launched a meme coin known as $Trump on 17 January. The price ballooned and then crashed. A small minority of traders made a profit, while the vast majority lost money or just about broke even. The President probably made millions, although the details are murky. He can potentially make a small fortune by selling off his stake in the future, particularly if any buyers with deep pockets take significant long positions to support the price.
In the world of finance, compliance experts will often talk about alignment. This refers to the problem of principals and agents. A principal is a party that delegates authority to another. In politics, the government and the state act as the principal. The agent - an elected official - is meant to act on behalf of the principal. In other words, elected officials are meant to represent the state rather than their own interests.
By putting his peanut factory in a blind trust, Carter was trying to keep his personal interests aligned with those of the people of the US. Trump’s meme coin shows us clearly that the new President couldn’t give a damn about any of this. He sent a clear message that he is out for himself.
Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) schtick is often based on making threats, for example, to disrupt global trade with unexpected tariffs on allies, and then look for concessions. However, if Trump’s interests aren’t aligned with those of the people he is meant to represent, what is to stop authoritarian regimes from pitching personal concessions, such as buying worthless meme coins to support the price, rather than guaranteeing to support manufacturing jobs in the Rust Belt?
Of course, some of the world’s nastiest regimes understand exactly how the game is played. For example, Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and his former White House adviser during his first term, received an investment of $2bn from a sovereign wealth fund controlled by Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after leaving office. Kushner developed a relationship with the Crown Prince, who is accused of ordering the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, while promoting initiatives to bring peace to the Middle East.
There is a precedent here. An authoritarian regime could buy lots of Trump’s meme coins, or invest in his other businesses, to help him make money later in return for concessions. At the same time, the new President is also pausing the enforcement of bribery of foreign officials. It is reasonable to expect this questionable decision to add significant amounts of shadiness into the system. If you decriminalise envelopes full of cash in one domain, you will inevitably see more envelopes full of cash everywhere.
In this context, how often should Democrats mention peanut farms? I think probably quite a lot. The issue should be top of the agenda for the opposition after a week where Trump accepted Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s narrative on Ukraine, arguing that the East European country somehow provoked a hostile invasion from its imperially minded neighbour.
Some of the ideas about alignment might be a little difficult to explain to ordinary voters in the US, so it is worth playing around with metaphors. Should federal judges have side gigs as estate agents? Should sports referees accept Rolexes from club owners? Should cops run courses on how not to get caught? I have no idea which analogy plays better in Ohio. Test a few! Let’s find out!
I don’t want to sound too over-blown, but there are very real risks to Trump turning American capitalism into a Russian-style mafia state if the Democrats can’t find a way of stopping him in his tracks. Mafia states are defined as those where elected officials seek to enrich themselves, their families and their friends. The first few weeks of Trump’s second term have been troubling, to put it mildly.
It is worth mentioning that in a worst-case scenario, the tech entrepreneurs who have enthusiastically backed Trump so far, might well come to regret their support. In a true mafia state, the wealth of oligarchs can easily be stolen to the state.
Finally, there are interesting parallels with Spain. I have mentioned before that left-wing populists and right-wing populists often show surprising stylistic similarities, despite different narratives. Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s Socialist Prime Minister (PM), who is becoming increasingly populist, is facing scandals about his wife and his brother, who are under investigation for allegedly enriching themselves thanks to their connection to the politician.
Sánchez has floated plans to do away with popular accusations, which let members of the public play a role in corruption cases. At the same time, there is another scandal concerning biased actions by state prosecutors. There has been much speculation that the PM’s wife would be able to sidestep an uncomfortable court case if popular accusations are removed and the case is handed over to state prosecutors, who are loyal to Sánchez. The comments are open. See you next week!
Previously on Sharpen Your Axe
Coups and democratic backsliding
Trump’s election victory (part one and part two)
Populist leaders are bad at governance
Further Reading
Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible: Adventures in Modern Russia by Peter Pomerantsev
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Given the firehose of outrageous behavior from Trump just since the inauguration, I’m finding it hard to keep up with either his previous violations of the Constitution or his ongoing abuses. But thank you, Rupert for reminding us of how it was supposed to be.