Patriotic Abstentions

How to fix Spanish politics

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"As we look across the great divide" by henrikj is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0.

Spanish politics are a mess. The political scene is split between a loose coalition of the left and Basque and Catalan nationalist allies on one hand and between a rival alliance of the right and liberal centrists on the other. Many people absolutely despise their adversaries on the other side. Meanwhile, politicians on both sides keep ancient grudges alive while fostering new mutinies, including regularly questioning the legitimacy of their opponents.

With no end to the great divide in sight, the problem is very simple: Mainstream politicians on the centre-left or the centre-right need to do deals with extremists in order to govern. The centre-left Socialists often need the support of a communist-led party and various separatist parties, while the centre-right Popular Party (PP) is likely to need the support of a far-right party if it wins this year.

As we saw here, Catalan nationalists plotted a self-coup attempt in 2017. Meanwhile, the populist left have acted as cheerleaders to Venezuela’s populists as they destroyed first the country’s democracy and later its economy. The populist right also act as fanboys for Hungarian strongman Viktor Orbán as he slowly erodes the country’s democracy.

Why should mainstream politicians have to do deals with people with such poor judgement in order to govern? This article will propose a simple solution to the mess, from an institutionalist point of view, but first let’s get up to speed on how we got here.

Spain has held 14 general elections since 1979, the year after it adopted a democratic constitution. The first ten, up to 2011, were a straightforward bipartisan affair, with two houses alike in dignity competing for power. In each of the first ten general elections, between 65% and 83% of the vote was split between the centre-left Socialist Party and the main centre-right party. This was the PP from 1989, with its predecessors running under different names in the first three elections.

In four of the first ten elections, the winner achieved a straight majority - twice for the Socialists and twice for the PP. The Socialists were also one vote off a majority in 1989. There were also four peaceful transitions of power between left and right in this period.

During the early years of contemporary Spanish democracy, the economy continued to grow fast. Spain modernized during the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s. The country became a full member of the European Union (EU) in 1986 and lifted its borders with other EU members in 1991 (the year I first moved here). Spain was also one of the first countries to join the euro in 1999.

However, the euro carried much lower interest rates than the peseta. Cheap debt led to a credit boom and a housing bubble. With property booming and developers desperate for licences, kickbacks became common among the political class, as Spaniards found out after the bubble burst.

The housing boom came to a messy end during the 2007-8 credit crunch. Spain officially entered a long and savage recession in February 2009. The economy grew a little in 2011, but it re-entered a recession in 2012 and didn’t start growing again until the end of 2013. During these years, the Spanish economy shrank by 7% and nearly 3.7m jobs were lost - a tragedy for a previously upwardly mobile and optimistic society.

Understandably enough, many ordinary people were furious at the bipartisan politics that they felt had left them in a hole while corrupt politicians had lived very comfortably indeed. Disappointed people don’t tend to vote for establishment parties. Hedgehogs selling magic solutions to real problems had a field day. Populism boomed. “A plague o' both your houses!”

In the next four general elections, combined support for the two main parties plummeted. This figure had averaged 74% over the first ten elections. However, in 2015, 2016 and two elections in 2019, it dropped to an average of 50%, hitting a low of 45% in the first election of 2019. Neither side achieved a straight majority in any of the four most recent elections.

Not all the new parties that emerged during the long recession were populists. Citizens (Cs) gained 40 seats with nearly 14% of the vote in 2015. It had been founded in 2006 in Barcelona in reaction against Catalan nationalism, which is hegemonic in the region. Cs took its first steps into national politics in 2008 and in 2014 two of its candidates became Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). Both joined the EU’s main liberal platform.

One of the main propositions of Cs was very simple: To offer the two main parties an alternative to deals with Catalan or Basque nationalists. The main Catalan nationalist party, Convergence and Unity (CiU), had held the balance of power at the national level three times in the first ten elections (in 1979, 1993 and 1996). Meanwhile, its main rival, Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), had supported the Socialists after the centre-left party failed to win a majority in 2004.

CiU’s founder, Jordi Pujol, an astute leader accused of astonishing levels of corruption, had been able to gain many concessions during his alliances with the Socialists and the PP. Both parties devolved taxes to Catalonia, which is one of Spain’s 17 autonomous communities. Meanwhile, the PP also granted Catalonia more power in transport, education, health, culture and other areas.

After years of infiltrating Catalan institutions with nationalists and separatists, CiU eventually took a quixotic turn to populism around 2011-12. It ended up seeking common ground with ERC in order to try and split the region from the rest of Spain, despite the lack of a real majority for independence and a Constitution that says that sovereignty rests with all Spaniards.

Cs gained strength in Catalonia and further afield as it fought against the Catalan independence movement at home. The closest it came to its dream of being a kingmaker was in 2016. In February, it agreed a pro-forma deal with the Socialists ahead of the elections in June. The PP won without a majority, while Cs came fourth. The liberals supported the winner. The lesson was clear: It was possible to do reformist deals with both the left and the right from the centre.

As we have previously discussed here, the PP was caught up in a dreadful corruption scandal dating back to the boom years, with a series of convictions arriving in 2018. Cs withdrew its support. Its former leader Albert Rivera told Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez that it would only support a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy if the vote was used to trigger an election. Sánchez refused. He formed a “Frankenstein” coalition to oust Rajoy and then governed for nearly a year afterwards without a working majority.

The result of the April 2019 election couldn’t have been clearer. Support for the PP collapsed to just 16.7% - its lowest ever result. Meanwhile, the Socialists and Cs gained a combined 189 seats, above the figure of 176 needed for a majority. Nearly 45% of the vote had gone towards the two parties. However, Rivera was still licking his wounds from the previous year. He refused to enter a coalition with Sánchez.

The result was a repeat of the election in November 2019. Support for Cs collapsed as its voters struggled to understand why a supposed kingmaker was now only open to deals to its right. The party ended up in sixth place, from third just a few months previously. It received just ten seats with 6.8% of the vote, compared to 57 with 15.9% almost seven months before.

The dream of Cs acting as a kingmaker that could deliver power to the centre-left or the centre-right died soon afterwards and Rivera, who was looking increasingly populist towards the end of his career, retired from politics. Sánchez, of course, was able to cut a coalition deal with the communist-led United We Can (UP), a party founded by fans of Venezuelan populism. He also cut deals with ERC and other nationalist parties to stay in power, although without a working majority on a day-to-day basis.

Sanchez’s concessions to his populist partners include removing misuse of public funds by public officials from the criminal code, as long as the corrupt politicians don’t personally benefit. This has caused outrage among Cs (cementing its position in the right-wing alliance), the PP and far-right party Vox.

Meanwhile, the PP has entered a coalition with Vox in Castilla & León. The far-right party has used its position in the coalition to try and make it harder to access abortion in the region. The move might appeal to the Christianist and socially conservative activists who make up Vox’s base, but polls show around seven out of ten voters support the country’s existing abortion laws, making the issue an unattractive one for the PP if it wants to regain power at the national level. The PP ended up pouring cold water on the proposal from its junior partner.

Extremist coalition partners are likely be a big theme in 2023, which is an election year in Spain. Municipal elections will be held throughout the country on 28 May. Twelve of the country’s 17 autonomous communities will also hold regional elections on the same date, while a 13th will do so earlier in May. A new general election is due by December.

It seems clear that fragmentation is here to stay. With Cs showing no sign of recovering, it is time for a new approach so that mainstream centre-left or centre-right politicians no longer need to cut deals with populists or nationalists that drag them away from the centre ground. Grand coalition deals appear extraordinarily unlikely given the mutual dislike. What about patriotic abstentions?

Imagine a deal between the PP and the Socialists before the May elections. They agree that if party A wins an election but falls short of a majority, party B will abstain in the investiture vote. The parties should also agree that the losing party will negotiate at least two budgets and one major piece of legislation with the victor in order to prevent lame-duck administrations and to foster a collaborative culture. On the other hand, if an abstention by one opposition party isn’t enough for its rival to form a government or a third party wins, then coalition negotiations will be fair game.

The beauty of this approach is that it is based on one simple principle, which can be applied across the board, from the smallest town hall to the largest autonomous community. The PP and the Socialists would end up supporting each other in complex ways throughout the country without actually entering into any formal coalitions. It might not turn their mutual rancour to pure love, but if the system works in May, it could then easily be applied in a general election in December.

It is hard to imagine Sánchez offering patriotic abstentions as a solution - he is deeply committed to doing deals with a range of minor parties. Also, he is keen on selling the idea that the PP will inevitably do a deal with Vox as a way of scaring centrist voters.

However, the leader of the opposition, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, should seriously consider the idea. Even if Sánchez rejects the offer, publicly floating the idea of patriotic abstentions would still benefit the PP: It would negate Sánchez’s attacks about the supposed inevitability of a deal with Vox if the PP wins the general election in December. The comments are closed for the week. See you next Saturday!

Further Reading

Romeo and Juliet by William Shakespeare

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